Property Report - 31 October 2013
The October 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of October. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
Summary of the market - October 2013
National average asking price hits new record high of $482,063
The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity as compared to the last few years. Off the back of the record high asking prices seen last month, seller confidence has again pushed up the (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price to a new record high of $482,063 in October.
Record high asking prices were seen in the main centers of Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch regions; and were also seen in Hawkes Bay, and Coromandel. The new high of $666,126 in Auckland represents a 3% increase on September. Canterbury's record high was 6% up to $441,908, and Wellington's high of $465,050 was 3% higher than the previous high seen in February this year.
October saw a significant rise in the number of new listings, with 13,978 new listings (27% more listings than September); and this rise has lead to some balancing of the property market in Auckland, and Canterbury.
The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for new listings hit a new record high of $482,063 last month, a rise of 8% from October 2012, and up 3% from September.
The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller price expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centres
The level of new listings coming onto the market in October rose significantly to 13,978 from 11,000 in September. This represents a rise of 27%, and is up 10% when compared to October last year
On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 132,479 new listings have come onto the market since November 2012 as compared to 132,291 in the prior 12 month period, a rise of just 0.1%.
The level of unsold homes on the market at the end of October (38,577) remained well down as compared to October last year (43,410), a drop of 11%.
The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales remained the same as the last month, 24.2 weeks of stock available.
The market remains firmly a seller's market; with 16 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages.
Regional Summary - Asking price expectations
The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose by 3.3% in October to a new record high asking price of $482,063
Record high asking prices were also seen 5 regions throughout New Zealand; Auckland, where the average asking price reached $666,126 (up 9% on October 2012); Wellington, where the asking price reached $465,050 (up 3% on October 2012), Canterbury, where the asking price reached $465,050 (up 3% on October 2012); Hawkes Bay, where the asking price reached $375,209 (up 8% on October 2012); and Coromandel, where the asking price reached $506,766 (up 14% on October 2012);
In total 10 regions saw asking price increases, with Hawkes Bay the largest increase, up 7.3% from September to $375,209. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls there were 5 that reported a falls greater than 5%, West Coast fell by 13% to $264,836, Marlborough fell 9% to $394,631, Central North Island fell 9% to $348,473, Gisborne fell 6.6% to $276,238, and Southland fell 5% to $226,501.
Regional Summary - Listings
Spring listings continued flowing onto the market last month, with 13,978 new homes coming on the market.
There were 14 regions reporting year on year increases with Central North Island reporting the biggest increase of listings (up 39%), followed by Nelson, where a 34% increase was recorded.
Of the 5 regions that reported lower new listings than October last year West Coast was the region to report the highest fall -18%, followed by Central Lakes, which saw a fall of 16%.
In the main centers, Auckland, and Canterbury saw a significant lift in new listings. Auckland reported 4,783 new listings, up 19% from October 2012, and Canterbury reported 1,549 new listings, up 11% from last year. Wellington, saw a 5% fall in listings, with just 1,049 new listings coming on the market.
Regional Summary - Inventory
The inventory of unsold homes on the market remained low in October at 24 weeks of equivalent sales.
Market sentiment continues remains firmly in favour of sellers in 16 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 12 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.
Two regions (Central North Island, and West Coast) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market, taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition 1 other region (Southland) sits close to its long-term average
Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of 'truncated mean'. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 580,000 unique browsers, with over 130,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 175,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties - retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses - retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for September 2013 can be downloaded here (2.1mb pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2013 will be published on this website on 1st December 2013 at 11am.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz